Today was a bull day! The day started pretty good with my main account in a positive position overall. Then it started going downhill with dovish FOMC interview, tumbling US Treasury yields and good EZ data. The weakness in USD pushed XAU at 10 days high ($1108) and EUR @ 1.102XX (late July highs). At one time, my day looked really bad with a negative position of $18XX. Nonetheless, I was able to scrape $66 on the main acccount and $50 on the profit account.
I am 2 days behind on my profit payments now.
I’ll just on these positions for now until market takes a turn.
Tomorrow’s a busy EZ data day & it looks like Germany will be posting good numbers on its manufacturing orders for the month of July. I’ll be setting a lower takeprofit price on all open trades that are in a better position so that I can give myself more margin money in case there’s a bigger bull run.
I have total open positions of 0.75 lot of XAU short with an average price of $1092.50 (including swap accrued over the weekend). I have set a takeprofit at $1080.50 and expect that market will see these levels somewhere on Wednesday. If there are any fundamental or technical changes in XAU in between, I’ll close the trades that are in profit to minimize my exposure.
My open position in EURUSD is 0.45 lot short with an average price of 1.09585 (including swap accrued over the weekend + commission per trade). My target takeprofit is 1.08999.
Current open position in AUDUSD is 0.25 lot short at an average cost of 0.73800 (including swap accrued over the weekend + commission per trade).
If USD continues it’s bull run (which fundamentals support specially after the NFP data that came out last friday), then I am in excellent position to close $1k in profits by the end of the week. If not, then I am another strategy at hand.
Sometimes, the trades that I am quite confident about takes a long time to mature. Let’s wait and watch!
Nothing excited expected from Asian markets this morning, so I am going to take some rest for now.
It’s going to be a quiet US data week ahead with Q2 labor costs along with productivity data out on Tuesday 11th August. On Thursday 13 August, July retail sales data will be out (+0.5% m/m forecast v/s -0.3% previous).
This week, a lot of data coming out of EZ. I am particularly eyeing Q2 flash GDP (+1.3% y/y forecast v/s +1.0% previous) due on Friday 14 August. So far from my analysis, this week is going to set the trend for EURUSD.
In UK, employment data is due on Wednesday 12 August which I am expecting will strengthen GBP against the USD.
In Japan, machinery orders data come out on Wednesday 12 August which is of particular interest. Analysts forecast it’s going to be negative. Slight chances that it will weaken USDJPY up to 125.070.
In Australia, not much of interest except for Q2 wage prices out on Wednesday 12th August.
Since I trade very small lots, I’d rather prefer to sit on a position for a few days rather than closing it at a loss. This has worked for me most of the time. And this is why you have not seen any trades closed in red since I started this blog.
The only time I close positions at a loss is when I am truly sure I am positioned at the wrong side of the market. Even then, I try to close them during short bull-run of a major news break to ensure I am able to recover at least the cost of the trade. Pepperstone charges $7.88 per 1 lot of EURUSD.
How I test my hypothesis/analysis?
I have a demo account that I trade on when I am not so sure about a certain pair or it’s direction. The demo account was started at $5k and currently stands at $14k. I am not going to post any screenshots for demo account on this website because that’s going to confuse everyone. If you want to see a screenshot of the demo account, drop me an email.
Time to get back to following the Asian market!
Not much movements in the market. Around $100 in profit so far. I will call it a day. Below are the winning trades so far.
I will post open positions on early Monday morning once market opens.
Most of the profit came from shorting EUR and XAU. Below is a list of trades that earned me today’s profits: